World Test Championship 2025-27: Who Can Still Reach the Final, What Every Team Needs and Who Is Out

The 2025-27 World Test Championship has narrowed to a three-way fight at the top, a long shot or two behind them, and three teams that can no longer realistically make the final. With Pakistan and Sri Lanka's first Test in Rawalpindi finishing in a draw and the table updated to 13 November 2026, here is where every side stands, what each needs, and who is already out.

How qualification works

The top two teams on points percentage (PCT) after the league stage reach the final, which is scheduled for The Oval in London in June 2027. PCT is points won divided by points contested: a win earns 12, a tie 6, a draw 4 and a defeat 0, and every Test carries the same weight whatever the length of the series. Slow over-rate penalties come off the points total, which is why England (14 points) and Pakistan (19 points) are carrying heavy deductions.

If teams finish level on PCT, the order is decided by series won, then PCT in away matches, then the ICC Test rankings on 30 April 2027.

The table today

New Zealand lead on 72.22% from six Tests (four wins, one defeat, one draw, 52 points). South Africa are second on 71.43% from seven (five wins, two defeats, 60 points). Australia are third on 69.23% from 13 (nine wins, four defeats, 108 points) after losing the second Test at Gqeberha to South Africa by an innings and 31 runs.

India are fourth on 51.52% (11 Tests, 68 points), Bangladesh fifth on 45.83% (eight Tests, 44 points), England sixth on 38.54% (16 Tests, 74 points after the 14-point deduction), Sri Lanka seventh on 33.33% (seven Tests, 28 points), West Indies eighth on 27.38% and Pakistan last on 7.50% after their 19-point penalty.

What every contender needs

Past cycles give a guide. India reached the 2023 final on 58.80%, while the 2025 finalists South Africa and Australia finished on 69.44% and 67.54%. Treat 60% as the bare minimum and roughly 65% as the safer target.

New Zealand have 10 Tests left: two against India at home from 19 November, four away in Australia from 9 December, two against Sri Lanka at home in February and two away in Pakistan in March. Five wins and a draw takes them to 60.42%, six wins to 64.58% and seven wins to 70.83%. The four Tests in Australia are the heart of their campaign.

South Africa have seven left: two at home to Bangladesh this month, three at home to England from 17 December and two away in Sri Lanka in February-March. Four wins would lift them to 64.29% and five wins to 71.43%. Three wins and a draw would leave them just short of 60% (59.52%), so the home series against Bangladesh and England should be treated as must-win.

Australia have nine left: four at home to New Zealand from 9 December, then five in India from late January. Four wins and a draw gives 60.61%, five wins and a draw 65.15%, and six wins 68.18%. Their schedule is the toughest in the table, because both series are against rivals for the same two places.

India need the most from the least. They have seven Tests left, two in New Zealand from 19 November and five at home against Australia from 21 January. Five wins from seven gives only 59.26%, so they need five wins and a draw (61.11%) to pass 60%, and six wins (64.81%) to feel safe. Winning all seven would put them on 70.37%. They also need other results to go their way, since they cannot overtake the leaders without the New Zealand and Australia series producing winners.

Bangladesh, on 45.83%, have only four Tests left: two away in South Africa and two at home to England. Winning all four would lift them to 63.89%, but three wins and a draw gets them only to 58.33%. The margin is gone.

Sri Lanka have six left: two in Pakistan, two in New Zealand and two at home to South Africa. Six wins would give 64.10%, but five wins and a draw stops at 58.97%. They need a perfect run and help from elsewhere.

Who is already out

West Indies are out. They have no matches remaining and finish on 27.38%. Pakistan are also marked as eliminated on the standings: four Tests are left, two against Sri Lanka at home from 17 November and two against New Zealand in March, but even winning all four would take them to only 33.93%.

England are the third side effectively out. They have five Tests left, two in Bangladesh in February and three in South Africa from 17 December, and the best they can finish on is 53.17%. That is not a mathematical elimination, because several rivals would have to collapse, but it is a long way from the 60% line.

The fixtures that will decide it

Three series carry the race. New Zealand against India (two Tests from 19 November) tests the leader's home form and ends India's margin for error. New Zealand in Australia (four Tests from 9 December) is a direct clash between two of the top three. India against Australia (five Tests from 21 January) closes the league stage and could decide second place on its own.

South Africa's schedule is the friendliest of the leading three, with five of their seven remaining Tests at home, but they still travel to Sri Lanka in the last block. Any slip against Bangladesh or England would open the door for Australia and New Zealand.

Where the numbers come from

Standings and fixtures are from the 2025-27 World Test Championship page on Wikipedia, updated to 13 November 2026. The qualification maths follows the approach used by Wisden's analysis of the race, Khelnow's scenarios for all nine teams and Outlook India's look at India's chances. The percentages above are GeoCric calculations from the current points and the remaining Tests, assuming no further slow over-rate deductions. We will update this piece as results come in.